SIH26079SoftwareMinistry of Earth Sciences (MoES)

AI-Based Forecast Bust Detection for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Background

The Ask

Real Struggle

Problem Statement Medium-range weather forecasts sometimes show large errors during rapidly evolving systems such as monsoon depressions, heavy rainfall events, western disturbances, cyclones,... Challenge The challenge is to develop an AI/ML-based system that can identify regions and lead t

Expected Solution

Forecast confidence map - Region-wise confidence for Day 1 to Day 10 forecasts Forecast bust probability - Probability of large forecast error over different regions Error-prone area detection - Identification of areas where model forecast may be unreliable Explainable output - Key meteorological reasons for low confidence Prototype dashboard/API - Simple interface for operational use

Forecast confidence map
Region-wise confidence for Day 1 to Day 10 forecasts Forecast bust probability
Probability of large forecast error over different regions Error-prone area detection
Identification of areas where model forecast may be unreliable Explainable output
Key meteorological reasons for low confidence Prototype dashboard/API
Simple interface for operational use